Washington Commanders offseason blueprint for 2023
Another year, another chance for the Washington Commanders to get things right. In his first season with the team, Head Coach Ron Rivera hammered home the idea of a five-year plan, where the team would take a leap in year three. Going into year four, the Commanders have barely improved while Rivera’s seat keeps getting hotter. If he wants to get the most out of his already talented team, he’ll need to have a solid plan going into the offseason.
Overview
- Cut loose weight, create cap space
- Identify your cornerstones, attack free agency
- Draft with intention
- Try to develop Sam Howell into a starter
Below is a blueprint for the Washington Commanders, detailing potential outcomes of the different phases of the offseason. Buckle up, it’s a long one!
Phase One: Cut loose weight
The first step in addressing the offseason for Washington is to take a look back at last year. During the 2022–2023 season, the Commanders ranked 20th in total offense and 23rd in points per game. On the other hand, they were third in the league in total defense and seventh in points allowed. That’s too big of a difference in production, especially when the offense has so many weapons. For that reason, they fired Offensive Coordinator Scott Turner. **Checks box**
With Turner gone, the Commanders will try to fill the vacancy with a capable offensive mind — Pat Shurmur, Mike Shula and Charles London have already been linked to the opening. There’s also a chance they go for some of the bigger names on the market, like Greg Roman or Byron Leftwich.
Once they find their guy, it’ll be time to make some tough decisions and decide which players to keep. Before any cuts, they head into the offseason with around $11.5M to spend. If they make even just a few of the following moves, they could end up in the top ten for total cap space come free agency:
Despite some of the above players’ importance during Rivera’s tenure, almost every move is a no-brainer.
- Carson Wentz had an abysmal year and certainly won’t be back at $26M.
- Chase Roullier and Logan Thomas have both missed a combined 30 games over the last two seasons.
- Andrew Norwell posted a career-low Pro Football Focus grade of 59.8 last year and will be 32-years-old by the start of next season.
- J.D. McKissic doesn’t have a role anymore and barely saw the field because of it.
- Joey Slye missed a combined nine field goal/extra point attempts, many during crucial moments of games.
Not a whole lot to argue with there.
A few other notable players — specifically on the offensive line — will also be on their way out. Wes Schweitzer, Tyler Larsen and Trai Turner are all free agents heading into the offseason.
Phase Two: Identify and attack
Now that Rivera and the front office have money to play with, they need to determine how and where to spend it all. First and foremost is a deal with Daron Payne, who had a career year in 2022 with 11.5 sacks. Contract extension talks stalled last year and now Payne will likely command around $60–80M in a multi-year deal. That’s a price Washington can pay, but they may have already decided to move on based on the contract they gave Jon Allen. Plus, they drafted Phidarian Mathis in the second round last year knowing Payne was up for an extension. They may still try to franchise tag him, but all indicators point to Payne being on his way out.
With or without Payne, the Commanders should also look into extending Kam Curl and Montez Sweat. Both defenders are key components in Defensive Coordinator Jack Del Rio’s scheme. Locking them up would help this defense continue its reign for at least a few more years. They’ll probably try to bring back Cole Holecomb and special teams captain Jeremy Reaves as well. Reaves was just named an All-Pro after making the 53-man roster for the first time in his career.
Free Agents
Outside of Washington are a number of free agent targets that can help fill other areas of need. For the time being, the plan is to roll with Sam Howell as the starting quarterback. Besides Wentz, he’s the only QB on the roster (for now), so the Commanders have to find someone experienced and reliable to put behind him. Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garoppolo and the fan-favorite Taylor Heinicke all make sense. Derek Carr, if released, is also a potential candidate for the starting job depending on what they do with Howell later on.
On the interior of the line, they could bring in Connor McGovern (NYJ) or Garrett Bradbury (MIN), who both have experience playing center in run-heavy offenses. With Charles Leno Jr. protecting the blind side, the Commanders will also need a piece opposite him. Mike McGlinchey (SF) and George Fant (NYJ) are a few names to consider at right tackle if they still plan on moving Sam Cosmi to right guard.
Defensively, a new face at linebacker or cornerback would go a long way for the Commanders. Devin Bush (PIT) and Kyzir White (PHI) are intriguing linebacker prospects (and probably won’t cost much). Put one of them along side Holecomb and Jamin Davis and the linebacker group looks a lot better. They could also go after Emmanuel Moseley (SF) or Cameron Sutton (PIT) for help at cornerback if they don’t plan on drafting one.
Trades
Ron Rivera has only pulled the trigger on three trades since he became head coach in Washington. Two of them involved lowly players and late-round picks, the other was for Carson Wentz. Based on the results of those trades, they probably won’t be very aggressive this offseason. (Unless they swing big and send the farm for Lamar Jackson!)
Phase Three: Draft with intention
The Commanders have drafted 26 players since 2020 and nine have developed into quality starters (Young, Gibson, Curl, Davis, Cosmi, St. Juste, Forrest, Dotson, Robinson Jr.). They’ll need to land at least two more in this year’s draft if they really want to compete. Their draft needs, in order, will include: OL, CB, LB, TE.
With their first-round pick, all eyes should be looking at the best offensive lineman or cornerback on the board — NOT at a quarterback. Many projections have the Commanders in the range of Peter Skoronski out of Northwestern and Christian Gonzalez from Oregon. Both players have experience in pro systems and can likely start right away. If neither are available, they should consider trading back a few spots to get Cam Smith from South Carolina or Broderick Jones from Georgia.
Following Washington’s first-round selection they’ll need to adjust accordingly. Going O-line in the first means cornerback in the second (and vice versa). If they can check those two boxes they should continue to build depth on the offensive line. Players with position flex almost always get on the field under Ron Rivera, so expect them to go after interior guys like Luke Wypler out of Ohio State and Joe Tippmann from Wisconsin in the middle rounds. Two gritty guys that logged a lot of snaps in one of the toughest conferences in all of college sports.
Some other areas of need for the Commanders are tight end and linebacker. Late-round options in Cameron Latu and Henry To’oTo’o — both from Alabama — could help round out those position groups. It’s possible they do the same at running back; Kenny McIntosh has shown promise in a similar offense down in Georgia. Having another versatile back behind Gibson and Robinson would be very useful.
Phase Four: Help develop Sam Howell
From the top down, this team needs to be on the same page going into training camp and the regular season. If Sam Howell is going to be the starting quarterback, announce it as soon as possible and own it. Accept what he is as a player, build around him and help him grow. That’s what it takes to find out if you have a franchise quarterback. The team already seems to like Howell enough, so why not just give him the keys?
There’s real hope for the Commanders if they finally decide to operate like a winning franchise. Too many times it feels like they wait for it all to happen to them. Maybe they should attack success instead. Bring in a few new faces and introduce them to the culture. Allow the team to rally around Howell the same way they rallied around Taylor Heinicke. Once that all happens, the rest of the pieces will fall into place.
If Howell becomes any bit capable, the Commanders would have what it takes to compete in the NFC. A great defense, a consistent rushing attack and a set of reliable hands at quarterback — that’s it. Right now, they have two out of three. Giving Howell a full offseason to be ‘the guy’ is the only way to know if he can be that guy in the future.
In conclusion…
- The Commanders need to find a new OC, cut their loose weight and create more cap space.
- With extra money to spend, they can try to lock down a few homegrown standouts like Daron Payne, Kam Curl, Montez Sweat and Cole Holecomb. Depending on their approach, they’d still have plenty left over to use on free agents.
- Even if they find a few gems in free agency, the Commanders will go into the draft with needs of OL, CB, LB, TE — OL and CB have to be taken in the first two rounds.
- Once they’ve assembled their roster, they need to give Sam Howell the keys and help develop him into a starter.
If they do all that, they just might have a shot.
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